Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
