Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
